THE prime minister is dealing with another Commons showdown over her EU withdrawal agenda after her Brexit deal was rejected in an epic defeat.
The humiliating defeat raised questions over the potential of a second referendum. But could that occur and how wouldn’t it work?
It’s wanting unlikely that Theresa Might will get sufficient MPs to help her plan
- 1 Will there be a second referendum?
- 2 What’s Labour’s position?
- 3 What are the chances of a second Brexit referendum?
- 4 Timeline in the build-up of strain for a second referendum
- 5 What have polls indicated?
- 6 How would the vote work?
- 7 When was the primary EU referendum?
Will there be a second referendum?
Might stated on January 21 that a second referendum could threaten the UK’s “social cohesion”.
The PM made the assertion as she unveiled her “plan B” Brexit deal to MPs in the Home of Commons.
She stated a second referendum would “set a difficult precedent” and that the implications for the nation have been critical.
On January 29 on MPs backed Might’s “plan B” deal so long as she tries to renegotiate a higher deal amid considerations concerning the Irish backstop.
However senior figures in Brussels, Berlin, Paris and Dublin warned that the demand solely made a no-deal Brexit extra possible as the clock ticks right down to the UK’s scheduled departure from the European Union on March 29.
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker described the Settlement reached after 18 months of negotiation final November as “the best and only deal possible”.
And he advised MEPs in the European Parliament in Brussels: “The talk and votes within the House of Commons yesterday do not change that.
“The Withdrawal Agreement will not be renegotiated.”
Might unveiled her ‘plan B’ to MPs on January 21
In December Jeremy Corbyn ruled out a second referendum should his celebration win a snap election
What’s Labour’s position?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has not dominated out calling for a second referendum in a U-turn after Might’s “plan B” Brexit deal statement on January 21.
He has repeatedly demanded a common election and not supported a second referendum until Labour MPs brazenly defied him.
But on January 22, it emerged Corbyn has given his backing to Labour MPs’ plan for a second Brexit referendum.
It’s claimed Corbyn now needs the Authorities to offer MPs the final say on whether there ought to be a second vote.
If a majority back a referendum, Parliament in flip could pressure Theresa Might to carry a new vote that could lead to Brexit being reversed, studies the Telegraph.
Corbyn had banned his get together MPs from speaking with Might about Brexit until she scrapped a no-deal Brexit, but Chuka Umunna and Chris Leslie went to No10 on January 21 for talks.
After MPs rejected Might’s deal on January 15, Corbyn tabled a vote of no confidence in the PM’s authorities – if it passed it could have triggered a basic election.
Nevertheless, Might narrowly survived the vote by 19 votes.
What are the chances of a second Brexit referendum?
On January 29, Guess365 was providing odds of 1/3 that there would NOT be a second Brexit vote, and 9/four that there would.
Betfair has put the chances at 2/1 that there will be another Brexit referendum by the top of this yr and 1/three there won’t.
Bookmaker Betfair has odds of 1/four the UK gained’t depart the EU by March 29 and 4/1 odds that we’ll.
Ladbrokes has put the chances at 3/1 that the UK will depart the EU with out a deal before April 1, 2019.
Nigel Farage referred to as for a second referendum on Brexit in January 2018
Timeline in the build-up of strain for a second referendum
- January 2018 The previous Ukip leader Nigel Farage stated on Channel5’s The Wright Stuff he was considering calling for a second referendum as a strategy to kill off the topic once and for all.
- March 2018 Depart. EU was fined £70,000 for failing to declare “at least” £77,380 it had spent on campaigning.
- April 2018 The marketing campaign group Individuals’s Vote was started with Labour MP Chuka Umunna at its head, along with three other members of parliament and the actor Patrick Stewart.
- July 2018 Theresa Might’s Cabinet agrees her latest Brexit strategy, referred to as the Chequers Plan.
- July 2018 The Electoral Fee fined the Vote Depart campaign group £61,000 after it stated it had damaged electoral regulation by exceeding its spending limit.
- July 2018 Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer stated Labour should back a second vote on EU membership if MPs rejected Theresa Might’s last cope with Brussels.
- September 2018 Tony Blair, in an interview with Euronews, stated the Authorities’s Brexit proposal was “doomed to fail”. He warned Might’s proposal was “the worst of both worlds and will satisfy nobody.”
- September 2018 Former Schooling Secretary Justine Greening stated Chequers Brexit plan was “more unpopular than the poll tax”.
- September 2018 Sadiq Khan referred to as for another EU referendum as a result of he believes the individuals should be given the prospect to reject Brexit.
- September 2018 Leaders of Czech Republic and Malta name on Theresa Might to commit to a second referendum at a summit in Salzburg.
- September 2018 Labour chief Jeremy Corbyn says his social gathering is open to the thought of a second referendum and stated that his get together would be prepared to vote down Theresa Might’s ultimate deal if it “didn’t meet their tests”.
- September 2018 Social gathering bosses have hinted they will back a second referendum – however Jeremy Corbyn’s closest ally, John McDonnell, has ruled out holding Britain within the EU
- October 2018 The Individuals’s Vote march in London takes place with around 700,000 demanding a remaining say on the Brexit deal.
- November 2018 A ballot finds that almost all of voters in areas held by Labour seats would help a second referendum.
- November 2018 Might’s Brexit draft passes Cabinet, only to be met with an unfriendly home, and a number of resignations from ministers and key authorities officers.
- November 2018 The Prime Minister secures the backing of the EU for the UK’s Brexit draft deal at a meeting in Brussels.
- November 2018 EU and UK agree on last leaving deal however it still has to be voted by means of parliament.
- November 2018 Ex-PM Tony Blair claims Labour is about to again a second referendum
- December 2018 Theresa Might’s Cabinet allies have been asking MPs in the event that they could back a second Brexit referendum.
- December 2018 Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd turned the primary Cabinet Minister to recommend there “was an argument” for a Individuals’s Vote.
- January 2019 Michael Gove says Depart would win second referendum by a fair greater margin.
- January 2019 Might’s deal will get rejected by parliament 432 to 202.
- January 2019 Might narrowly survives vote of no confidence in her authorities by 19 votes.
- January 2019 Might says a second referendum could threaten the UK’s “social cohesion”.
What have polls indicated?
A ballot carried out by YouGov on January 16 revealed that 48 per cent stated they might vote Stay if there was a second referendum, 38 per cent say they would go away and 14 per cent would be undecided.
After Parliament rejected Might’s Withdrawal Agreement, 42 per cent stated she should resign, 38 per cent stated she ought to stay as PM and 20 per cent did not know.
The query was put to 1,070 British adults.
How would the vote work?
The SNP have stated they might back a so-called Individuals’s Vote and a variety of Conservative MPs have additionally backed one.
So there could be a majority in Parliament for it however a second referendum won’t happen shortly and the first stage is for there to be an Act of Parliament.
That may require the backing of a majority of MPs and it took seven months before Parliament signed off the previous referendum legislation in 2015.
Final time round there was a four-month interval between the then Prime Minister David Cameron saying the referendum in February 2016, and the vote happening on 23 June.
But the Electoral Fee has stated in future there should be at the very least a six-month hole to allow enough time to register campaigns and put counting officers in place.
There’s additionally the question of what to do about Article 50.
This could be prevented if the EU agreed to extend the Article 50 deadline – but that would wish to be unanimously agreed by all EU member states.
Then there is the query of what to placed on the ballot paper.
If there are three questions – for example accept a negotiated Brexit deal; stay within the EU; or depart with no deal – then simply 34 per cent could determine the profitable choice.
Brexit could be pushed again to MAY as MPs row over PM’s deal
HARD AS ROCK
What does a no deal Brexit imply for Gibraltar?
What’s the Brexit backstop and what does it imply for the Irish border?
What’s a No-Deal Brexit and what occurs if a deal isn’t signed?
Pound to euro trade fee – what is the newest fee as Might battles for Brexit
When was the primary EU referendum?
The primary referendum on EU membership happened in 1975.
Two-thirds of voters (67.23 per cent) backed the continued membership of the European Economic Group, which the UK had joined only two years earlier than.
Underneath Harold Wilson’s leadership, the Labour Celebration was making an attempt to present to the public a totally different version of EEC membership to get a higher deal.
The EEC was integrated into the European Union after it was created in 1993.
In the summertime of 2016, Britain voted to go away the EU after 17.4million individuals backed Depart in comparison with 16.1million Stay voters.
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